Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae2e…db7e
crypto · 43 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$29 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 4 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Up 42¢ 39¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? No 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Korea Republic 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 1PM ET? No 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 1PM ET? No 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 1PM ET? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 11AM ET? No 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 11AM ET? No 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +133%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +188%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$7 +678%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 11 $65 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 11AM ET? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 11AM ET? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $37 −$11 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 10 $3 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$6 -43%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $4 +$4 +99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $5 +$5 +94%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 +$6 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $74 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$10 +186%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $43 −$15 -34%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 07 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% −$36
other 26% −$9
sports 12% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 42¢ $3 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 0¢ $2 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $2 6m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 56¢ $9 18m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 26¢ $4 2h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 12¢ $5 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 79¢ $7 10h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 10h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $8 10h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 9¢ $4 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 10h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 10h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 10h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 3¢ $1 10h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Mexico 19¢ $10 17h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 20¢ $11 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 5¢ $1 23h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? BUY No 0¢ $2 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 0¢ $2 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY No 0¢ $2 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $2 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 6¢ $2 26h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 26h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 30h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 1PM ET? BUY No 7¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 1PM ET? BUY No 9¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 1PM ET? BUY No 18¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 23% -15.1%
≤30d 39 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 23% -15.1%
≤90d 39 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 23% -15.1%
all 39 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 23% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 23% -15.1%
10% -21.4% 23% -23.2%
15% -29.0% 15% -30.6%
20% -36.0% 15% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.39 · official $7.39 (match) · 96 history records