Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:28:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AE 0xae2e…f8b2 crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%98W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$29
other 22% −$45
world 18% +$45
politics 2% −$41
tech 0% −$9
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 61 -1.3% -10.7% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 103 -1.0% -10.4% 95% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$32 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses98 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage145d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $220 $220 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 23? May 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $60 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13? May 13 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6? May 06 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 1? May 03 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $216 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $213 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $220 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $220 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $210 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $210 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $80 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $210 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $200 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $210 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $200 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $220 17d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $200 18d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $200 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $200 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $200 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $10 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $200 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.11 · official $220.11 (match) · 213 history records