Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae30…a1c0 sports 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$87 (-2%) realized −$67 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%32W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$224
14 days+$274
30 days+$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$139
other 11% +$103
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +35.3% +22.4% 20% 20% +26.0%
≤30d 45 +33.8% +21.0% 24% 24% +45.3%
≤90d 105 +13.0% +2.2% 30% 30% -9.9%
all 105 +13.0% +2.2% 30% 30% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 30% -9.9%
10% -7.5% 30% -18.6%
15% -16.5% 30% -26.4%
20% -24.7% 29% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$38 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 73
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions5
Markets (closed)105 / 116
History coverage61d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -18%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$55 +1071%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $51 +$169 +331%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$35 +172%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$73 +712%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$106 +344%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $9 +$76 +868%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 −$42 -58%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$101 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$44 +144%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $72 +$211 +294%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $42 −$37 -86%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $76 +$47 +61%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $51 −$49 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $153 −$152 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $61 −$60 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $92 −$90 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 5¢ $10 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18 BUY 4¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $10 13h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Korea Republic win on 20 BUY 1¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 18h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND SELL 87¢ $221 19h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Korea Republic win on 20 BUY 1¢ $1 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 25h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 7¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.91 · official $79.91 · 258 history records