Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae34…3a8a sports 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$174 (-5%) realized −$103 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%75W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$79
14 days−$83
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$98
other 20% +$28
world 11% −$56
crypto 2% −$9
finance 1% −$6
politics 1% −$5
weather 1% −$18
tech 1% −$12
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 40% -13.7%
≤30d 178 -8.1% -16.8% 42% 35% -14.8%
≤90d 178 -8.1% -16.8% 42% 35% -14.8%
all 178 -8.1% -16.8% 42% 35% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 35% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 28% -22.9%
15% -32.1% 20% -30.4%
20% -38.7% 8% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,638
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses75 / 103
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions31
Markets (closed)178 / 209
History coverage23d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 80¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ 68¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $149 $146 −$3 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 76¢ 74¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 66¢ $150 $142 −$7 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 54¢ $149 $129 −$20 (-14%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 44¢ $149 $107 −$42 (-28%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 66¢ 69¢ $89 $94 +$5 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 62¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+4%)
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) New Zealand 74¢ 74¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 64¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? No 64¢ 86¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+34%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 62¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 67¢ 73¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 29? No 90¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 50¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 23¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +19%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $150 +$68 +45%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $150 +$84 +56%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $151 −$149 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $40 +$24 +61%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $19 +$6 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$5 +108%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 26 $20 +$5 +28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +27%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 26 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $40 +$11 +27%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $40 +$15 +39%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $40 +$22 +56%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $39 +$15 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $40 −$30 -75%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $39 −$35 -89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $38 +$16 +43%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $5 +$1 +31%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $5 −$2 -52%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$2 +35%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $4 +$5 +105%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $9 +$1 +6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$3 +61%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $9 +$3 +39%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $10 +$4 +47%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $151 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $151 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 78¢ $151 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 66¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 66¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 60¢ $50 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 60¢ $40 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 96¢ $6 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $151 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 96¢ $1 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 96¢ $137 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 96¢ $80 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 66¢ $150 5h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $151 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $50 6h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64¢ $150 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $40 6h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 1¢ $2 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 70¢ $36 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 70¢ $22 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 70¢ $4 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 70¢ $90 8h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $149 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $151 9h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $50 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 62¢ $23 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 62¢ $16 11h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $40 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,638.28 · official $1,634.76 (match) · 549 history records