Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae35…76db weather 1118 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,636 (-2%) realized −$1,642 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate92%1012W / 84L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$669now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$33
14 days+$114
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$877
sports 8% +$266
other 6% −$611
world 2% +$198
tech 1% −$107
politics 1% +$48
crypto 1% +$238
finance 1% +$4
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -6.9% -15.7% 71% 17% -10.0%
≤30d 298 -0.8% -10.3% 88% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 1096 +1.2% -8.5% 92% 7% -10.3%
all 1096 +1.2% -8.5% 92% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 7% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 5% -18.9%
15% -25.2% 4% -26.8%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$31 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$669
Realized−$1,642
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1012 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1096 / 1118
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$85
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1096 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $298 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+7%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 87¢ 99¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 80¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 90¢ 91¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 78¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-47%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 26¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia Jun 17 $1 $0 -29%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 1 Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $110 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $298 +$2 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $298 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $298 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 3? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia SELL 1¢ $1 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 90¢ $14 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $26 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $30 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 96¢ $1 14h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $1 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 45¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $668.84 · official $668.84 (match) · 3500 history records