Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae37…4888 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (462 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$668 (-8%) realized −$668 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day462.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,965
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (462 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 41% -33.4%
≤30d 29 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 41% -33.4%
≤90d 29 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 41% -33.4%
all 29 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 41% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover462.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 41% -33.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 41% -39.8%
15% -43.2% 41% -45.6%
20% -48.7% 34% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$251 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$668
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day462.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $346 −$246 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $236 −$230 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $369 −$355 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $152 −$144 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $172 −$163 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $544 −$225 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $161 +$183 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $155 +$87 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $215 +$97 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $319 +$238 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $570 +$554 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $532 −$157 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $347 −$331 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $258 +$194 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $361 +$258 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $246 +$195 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $415 −$50 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $359 −$350 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $142 +$61 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$54 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $388 +$277 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $572 −$566 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $493 −$492 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $494 −$479 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 469 history records