Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AE 0xae3d…1c31 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$27 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$9
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.4% +24.3% 86% 86% +22.0%
≤30d 7 +37.4% +24.3% 86% 86% +22.0%
≤90d 7 +37.4% +24.3% 86% 86% +22.0%
all 7 +37.4% +24.3% 86% 86% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.3% 86% +22.0%
10% +12.4% 86% +10.3%
15% +1.6% 86% -0.4%
20% -8.4% 71% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$690
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.42 · official $690.42 (match) · 24 history records