trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +61.2% | +45.8% | 100% | 50% | +48.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +17.6% | +6.4% | 33% | 22% | -15.4% |
| all | 31 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 42% | 29% | -38.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 29% | -38.9% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 26% | -44.8% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 23% | -50.1% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 23% | -55.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 96¢ | $333 | $637 | +$304 (+91%) |
| Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? | No | 89¢ | 72¢ | $178 | $143 | −$35 (-20%) |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 4¢ | $333 | $29 | −$304 (-91%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by April 30? | May 28 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 28 | $11 | +$13 | +122% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 21 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 21 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 21 | $2 | +$8 | +457% |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? | Apr 29 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? | Apr 29 | $4 | −$3 | -75% |
| Comey posts a video message on substack again by Friday? | Apr 29 | $15 | −$9 | -58% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 27 2026? | Apr 29 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Mar 25 | $173 | −$173 | -100% |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | Mar 25 | $193 | +$7 | +4% |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Mar 25 | $844 | +$3 | +0% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 14 | $623 | −$623 | -100% |
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis | Feb 14 | $787 | +$461 | +59% |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla | Feb 08 | $291 | −$291 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Jazz | Jan 25 | $1,280 | +$180 | +14% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom | Jan 24 | $1,300 | $0 | +0% |
| Warriors vs. Hornets | Dec 31 | $870 | −$870 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Clippers | Dec 29 | $100 | +$150 | +150% |
| Warriors vs. Raptors | Dec 29 | $100 | +$171 | +170% |
| Celtics vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 29 | $100 | +$224 | +223% |
| Grizzlies vs. Wizards | Dec 29 | $100 | +$233 | +233% |
| Kings vs. Lakers | Dec 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Thunder | Dec 28 | $101 | −$101 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Pelicans | Dec 27 | $1,850 | −$594 | -32% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Dec 25 | $1,250 | +$380 | +30% |
| Knicks vs. Timberwolves | Dec 24 | $1,550 | +$130 | +8% |
| Pistons vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 22 | $1,860 | −$1,860 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | Dec 11 | $1,607 | −$1,607 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Thunder | Dec 10 | $936 | −$936 | -100% |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |