Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AE 0xae3f…5d56 world 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$401 (+3%) realized +$369 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate73%164W / 62L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$40
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$296
other 19% +$87
politics 18% +$37
sports 8% +$16
economics 3% +$11
crypto 1% −$42
tech 1% +$25
culture 1% −$22
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 15 +2.2% -7.6% 87% 33% -24.4%
≤90d 69 -18.9% -26.6% 65% 20% -10.9%
all 226 +3.7% -6.2% 73% 28% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 28% -6.3%
10% -15.2% 15% -15.3%
15% -23.3% 10% -23.5%
20% -30.9% 5% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$1,047
Realized+$369
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses164 / 62
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)226 / 247
History coverage253d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 92¢ $256 $274 +$18 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $220 $217 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $156 $152 −$4 (-3%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $118 $130 +$12 (+10%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $68 $73 +$5 (+8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 72¢ 100¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+39%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 69¢ 89¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 82¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+225%)
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 59¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 +$1 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $23 −$2 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $72 +$3 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $68 +$2 +4%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $34 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 09 $25 +$10 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 09 $86 +$14 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 26 $97 +$8 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 08 $100 +$26 +26%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 06 $170 −$10 -6%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 01 $220 −$60 -27%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $20 $0 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $51 +$4 +7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $152 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -95%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 20 $10 −$4 -37%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 19 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $132 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $129 +$9 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 19 $232 +$11 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $84 +$16 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Claude 4.7 released by April 24? Apr 16 $294 +$6 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 13 $426 +$17 +4%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $28 +$7 +25%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $20 +$2 +8%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14? Apr 11 $1 $0 +15%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $10 $0 +2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12? Apr 11 $15 $0 +3%
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $30 $0 +1%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $38 +$2 +5%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 08 $0 $0 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $73 21m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $138 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 7h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 7h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $19 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $28 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $118 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $147 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $68 7d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $72 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 8d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 97¢ $24 11d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY Yes 95¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,047.22 · official $1,047.24 (match) · 1164 history records