Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae42…9235 weather 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-14%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$77
14 days−$118
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$117
other 4% −$2
sports 4% $0
crypto 1% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.7% -28.2% 69% 23% -25.0%
≤30d 77 -7.3% -16.1% 35% 22% -23.3%
≤90d 77 -7.3% -16.1% 35% 22% -23.3%
all 77 -7.3% -16.1% 35% 22% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 22% -23.3%
10% -24.1% 16% -30.6%
15% -31.5% 13% -37.3%
20% -38.2% 10% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$22 -42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $105 −$56 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $20 −$8 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$15 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 07 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $37 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$12 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 +$20 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$21 +671%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 76¢ $31 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 73¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $52 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 66¢ $34 29h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 57¢ $31 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $48 30h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $48 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 36h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $16 36h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 71¢ $21 36h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $105 38h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 47h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $70 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records