Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae44…a6ad other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$710 (-46%) realized −$708 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$2
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$21
politics 39% −$604
crypto 7% −$29
sports 3% −$22
economics 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -18.6% -26.3% 39% 39% -8.7%
≤30d 46 -18.6% -26.3% 37% 37% -13.3%
≤90d 52 -17.3% -25.1% 37% 37% -13.6%
all 65 -33.8% -40.1% 29% 29% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 29% -55.6%
10% -45.8% 29% -59.9%
15% -51.1% 28% -63.7%
20% -55.9% 22% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$708
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage595d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$20 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$29 +291%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$4 -65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $57 +$21 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$26 +64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$26 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 +$8 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 +$10 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$22 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$18 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 19 $11 +$11 +100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 47m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 19h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $59 19h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $78 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $57 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 24h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.37 · official $43.37 (match) · 98 history records