Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AE 0xae48…cb58 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
other 33% $0
finance 8% $0
sports 6% −$4
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 0% -9.4%
all 16 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 6% -10.9%
10% -22.9% 6% -19.4%
15% -30.4% 6% -27.2%
20% -37.2% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage485d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $22 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 20 $6 $0 +0%
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Mar 05 $3 +$3 +100%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Mar 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $36 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $22 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 24d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 378d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 394d
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? BUY Yes $0 395d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $1 409d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio SELL Yes 76¢ $4 423d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio BUY Yes 77¢ $4 423d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $1 434d
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 455d
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 455d
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State BUY South Alabama 50¢ $3 484d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records