Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AE 0xae48…9469 crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,535 (+29%) realized +$2,191 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1033% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +772% what you keep after slip
Net edge+772%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate73%199W / 72L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day2426.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,191
7 days+$2,191
14 days+$2,191
30 days+$2,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+925.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +1032.9% +925.0% 73% 62% -6.1%
≤30d 271 +1032.9% +925.0% 73% 62% -6.1%
≤90d 271 +1032.9% +925.0% 73% 62% -6.1%
all 271 +1032.9% +925.0% 73% 62% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2426.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +925.0% 62% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here +826.9% 57% -15.1%
15% +737.4% 56% -23.3%
20% +655.3% 56% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1033% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +102% → late +1957% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
33.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$2,191
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses199 / 72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)271 / 72
History coverage1d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day2426.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $38 $49 +$11 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 82¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 65¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+55%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 58¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 77¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 86¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 81¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$17 -226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$37 -662%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$48 -5909%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$28 -3105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$37 -4271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$17 -2355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$44 -7850%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$39 -4805%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$61 -9824%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$3 -565%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$27 -3908%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$52 -7054%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$40 -5625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$182 -38509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$8 -1657%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$183 -33182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$91 -15343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$18 -3923%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$50 -10037%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$77 -18992%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$37 -7545%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$29 -6380%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$73 -16084%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$15 -3958%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$36 -15104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$13 -6790%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$84 -35185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$18 +15755%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$4 +4611%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$69 -57840%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 −$73 -88920%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$47 -45880%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +871%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +1071%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$78 +6459175%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$3 +3340%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$5 +1770%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$11 +7494%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$66 +28731%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$4 +2728%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +2737%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$15 +166354%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$4 +53348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$17 +16399%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$5 +7804%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -224%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$5 +46069%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$5 +9810%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.03 · official $63.99 · 3500 history records