Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae4c…dcb9
sports · 436 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,846 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,717 · open −$129
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$3,717
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses220 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$972
Open positions2
Markets (closed)434 / 436
History coverage169d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 434 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$447
14 days−$752
30 days−$977
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 54¢ 100¢ $24 $44 +$20 (+84%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 25¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 40¢ 0¢ $285 $0 −$285 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 25¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner FaZe 59¢ 0¢ $283 $0 −$283 (-100%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner MOUZ 62¢ 0¢ $448 $0 −$448 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 44¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner PlayTime 33¢ 0¢ $226 $0 −$226 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner FaZe 28¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Team Nemesis 31¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Liquid 60¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 84¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Team Yandex 32¢ 0¢ $161 $0 −$161 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 21¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Aurora 40¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Yandex 35¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 14¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner MOUZ 30¢ 0¢ $312 $0 −$312 (-100%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Tundra Esports 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner FaZe 27¢ 0¢ $456 $0 −$456 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner FlyQuest 12¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Yellow Submarine 27¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 14¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner BC.Game Esports 33¢ 0¢ $188 $0 −$188 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Spirit 42¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $135 −$132 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $26 −$21 -81%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $672 −$672 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $513 +$438 +85%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $161 −$161 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $165 +$66 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$39 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $485 +$358 +74%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $128 −$128 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $298 −$86 -29%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $194 +$26 +14%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $322 +$278 +86%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $274 +$326 +119%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $32 +$15 +46%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $43 +$31 +72%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 30 $33 +$25 +73%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $290 −$285 -98%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 30 $299 −$283 -95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $225 −$224 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $145 −$145 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $280 +$477 +170%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $21 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3 +$2 +97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $180 −$180 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $275 +$275 +100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $117 −$117 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $295 −$99 -34%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 −$34 -66%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $264 +$8 +3%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $444 −$439 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $333 +$284 +85%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $431 −$430 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $240 −$217 -91%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $475 +$453 +95%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $174 +$8 +5%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $753 −$390 -52%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3 +$2 +60%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $24 +$109 +456%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $595 +$622 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $76 −$49 -64%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $461 −$456 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 13 $215 +$18 +8%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $377 −$377 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $304 −$304 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$3,851
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $24 42m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 25¢ $153 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 20¢ $135 3h
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 28¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 50¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 25¢ $168 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 25¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 51¢ $354 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 51¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 51¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 51¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 51¢ $64 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 51¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 51¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 48¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 48¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 42¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $55 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 64¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL M80 55¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL M80 55¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL M80 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL M80 55¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -41.6% -47.1% 38% 31% -24.3%
≤30d 45 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 38% -18.6%
≤90d 298 -26.8% -33.7% 40% 31% -25.7%
all 434 -9.5% -18.2% 51% 39% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 39% -13.0%
10% -26.0% 35% -21.3%
15% -33.1% 32% -28.9%
20% -39.7% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.52 · official $44.52 (match) · 2096 history records