Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae50…5923 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$6
world 26% $0
politics 19% $0
tech 6% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.7%
all 39 +3.6% -6.3% 36% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 5% -9.0%
10% -15.3% 3% -17.7%
15% -23.5% 3% -25.7%
20% -31.0% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage403d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $29 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 24 $2 +$6 +313%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -72%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $22 +$3 +12%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 07 $27 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 28? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $1 $0 -18%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78–79°F on Ma May 28 $27 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 23–30? May 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 22 $29 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 18 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $7 8h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $26 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $7 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $22 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $13 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $30 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $14 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $15 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records