Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae51…1d03 sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60,396 (+11%) realized +$60,396 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +174% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip
Net edge+91%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate72%94W / 36L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$4,621per market
Trades / day134.8pace
Fees−$9,795est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$28,499
weather 0% +$152
other 0% −$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+148.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +354.2% +310.9% 55% 35% -13.8%
≤30d 130 +174.4% +148.3% 72% 25% -4.9%
≤90d 130 +174.4% +148.3% 72% 25% -4.9%
all 130 +174.4% +148.3% 72% 25% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +148.3% 25% -4.9%
10% +124.5% 16% -14.0%
15% ← realistic here +102.9% 13% -22.3%
20% +83.0% 13% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +174% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$6,825) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +182% → late +167% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$108 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.29 per $1 lost it wins $8.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$60,396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses94 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$9,795
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 117
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$4,621
Trades / day134.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internationaux de Strasbourg: McCartney Kessler vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 18 $0 −$43 -19031%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $0 +$160 +838658%
Set 1 Winner: Mayot vs Barrios Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson Jun 18 $0 −$190 -86982%
Set 1 Winner: Galarneau vs Cina Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 18 $0 −$153 -276973%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $0 +$137 +186895%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $0 +$61 +67732%
Set 1 Winner: Heide vs Rodionov Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $359 −$183 -51%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $0 +$85 +125670%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Katarina Zavats Jun 18 $0 +$7 +1775%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1,866 +$310 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $314 +$38 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 18 $9 +$1 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 18 $21 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $4 −$1 -35%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 17 $27 +$3 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $855 −$23 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 16 $1,808 +$98 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $154 −$25 -16%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 16 $3,630 −$264 -7%
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Lys Jun 16 $55 +$4 +7%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 15 $1,849 −$16 -1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $1,372 +$149 +11%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 12 $407 −$135 -33%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 11 $2,041 +$190 +9%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 11 $7,553 +$453 +6%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $276 −$59 -21%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $99 −$1 -1%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $384 +$15 +4%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Jun 06 $12,516 +$675 +5%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $5,463 +$252 +5%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Norbert Gombos Jun 05 $1,218 +$33 +3%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $9,241 +$646 +7%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $8,501 +$391 +5%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 04 $676 +$7 +1%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Lautaro Midon Jun 03 $12 −$11 -98%
Prostejov: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Maxim Mrva Jun 03 $1,194 −$5 -0%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 03 $1,383 +$23 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $27,570 +$623 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $842 +$84 +10%
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert Gombos Jun 03 $8,538 +$615 +7%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 03 $126 +$6 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 99¢ $5 54m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 24¢ $56 55m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 92¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 13¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 10¢ $26 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 41¢ $405 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 41¢ $8 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 41¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 41¢ $1,663 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 35¢ $1,835 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 83¢ $154 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 83¢ $4 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 19¢ $5 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 71¢ $133 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 23¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 31¢ $2 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 31¢ $9 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 31¢ $93 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 31¢ $16 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 31¢ $2 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 31¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 17¢ $27 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 66¢ $3 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 26¢ $36 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 75¢ $16 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 68¢ $15 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 64¢ $54 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 63¢ $20 4h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 47¢ $52 4h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 39¢ $17 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records