Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae51…0d08 sports 494 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,934 (+7%) realized +$7,133 · open −$199
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%197W / 293L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1,887est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,204
7 days−$1,836
14 days−$2,141
30 days−$2,744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$3,355
crypto 4% −$932
other 1% +$1,120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -9.2% -17.8% 32% 32% -23.7%
≤30d 174 -12.6% -20.9% 32% 32% -15.8%
≤90d 489 +0.5% -9.0% 40% 40% -6.0%
all 490 +0.5% -9.0% 40% 40% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 40% -6.0%
10% -17.7% 39% -15.0%
15% -25.7% 38% -23.2%
20% -33.0% 38% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$178 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$7,133
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses197 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,887
Open positions4
Markets (closed)490 / 494
History coverage129d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 22¢ 46¢ $100 $211 +$111 (+111%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 18¢ $213 $24 −$188 (-89%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $95 $10 −$85 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $428 −$212 -50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $111 −$108 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 17 $127 +$209 +165%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $114 −$113 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $342 −$239 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$131 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$125 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$70 -94%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 17 $211 −$206 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $174 −$171 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $312 −$312 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $132 +$385 +291%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $224 +$404 +180%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $72 −$10 -14%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $152 −$148 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $239 −$234 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $100 −$97 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $212 +$108 +51%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $608 −$598 -98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $256 +$762 +298%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $109 −$106 -97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$120 +118%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$152 +149%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $494 −$278 -56%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$251 +246%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $296 −$295 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$140 +137%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 14 $73 +$222 +303%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 14 $102 +$226 +221%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $288 −$12 -4%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $189 −$185 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 14 $185 +$394 +213%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $379 −$370 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $230 +$349 +152%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 14 $505 −$304 -60%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $629 +$878 +140%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $185 +$150 +81%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $130 +$195 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 18¢ $1 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 18¢ $217 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 28¢ $97 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 13¢ $111 4h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 24¢ $203 4h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 37¢ $331 6h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $336 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $114 20h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $127 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $64 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $89 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $235 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $156 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $74 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 21h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 21¢ $211 21h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 26¢ $174 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.34 · official $308.34 (match) · 1128 history records