Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae53…d80b sports 516 markets active 7h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,055 (+7%) realized +$5,016 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%268W / 247L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$393
14 days−$522
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$5,671
other 5% −$1,296
world 1% +$774
crypto 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -57.6% -61.6% 26% 26% -41.3%
≤30d 60 -28.7% -35.5% 38% 37% -19.5%
≤90d 70 -19.0% -26.7% 43% 41% -3.6%
all 515 +1.2% -8.4% 52% 51% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 51% -3.3%
10% -17.2% 48% -12.6%
15% -25.2% 44% -21.0%
20% -32.5% 41% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$124 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$5,016
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses268 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)515 / 516
History coverage586d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 34¢ 54¢ $68 $107 +$39 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $129 +$34 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 −$36 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $92 +$108 +117%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 +$21 +35%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $119 −$48 -40%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $118 +$53 +45%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $61 +$39 +63%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $162 +$38 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $129 −$128 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $131 −$130 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $149 +$51 +34%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $57 +$69 +121%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $71 +$29 +42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $120 +$80 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $135 +$65 +48%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $74 −$72 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $141 +$59 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$143 +250%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $123 +$77 +62%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $89 +$111 +125%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $81 −$55 -67%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $93 +$107 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $9 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $5 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $25 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $29 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $164 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $102 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $89 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 18¢ $37 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $18 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $9 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $21 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 46¢ $76 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 46¢ $1 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 46¢ $1 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 46¢ $14 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $30 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 70¢ $69 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.99 · official $96.99 · 2007 history records