Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae55…2aa1 crypto 787 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-3%) realized −$129 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%432W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$152
14 days−$28
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$113
sports 26% −$128
other 6% +$16
world 1% −$25
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$4
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.0% -13.1% 34% 31% +13.7%
≤30d 67 -25.3% -32.5% 30% 28% -11.7%
≤90d 77 -24.3% -31.5% 34% 32% -18.2%
all 784 -5.7% -14.7% 55% 48% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 48% -12.8%
10% -22.9% 41% -21.1%
15% -30.3% 32% -28.8%
20% -37.2% 24% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses432 / 352
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)784 / 787
History coverage159d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 69¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 276 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$11 +55%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$32 +206%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$9 +60%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$4 -19%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $71 +$104 +146%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 −$21 -69%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$56 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$24 +238%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 +$75 +334%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +101%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 32h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND BUY 30¢ $10 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $10 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 32h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 46h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 32¢ $15 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $20 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $15 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $25 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 23¢ $17 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $15 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $20 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $71 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $10 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $10 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 14¢ $10 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.54 · official $103.54 (match) · 1632 history records