Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae56…97c8
crypto · 98 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$23 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses48 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 51% -24.3%
≤30d 96 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 49% -30.6%
≤90d 96 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 49% -30.6%
all 96 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 49% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 49% -30.6%
10% -35.2% 43% -37.2%
15% -41.5% 35% -43.3%
20% -47.2% 23% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.09 · official $2.91 (match) · 147 history records