Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae59…b0aa crypto 654 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,586 (-12%) realized −$17,581 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate85%555W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,801
world 0% +$31
sports 0% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 16% -11.2%
≤30d 415 -3.1% -12.4% 89% 15% -11.8%
≤90d 653 -4.0% -13.2% 85% 23% -13.1%
all 653 -4.0% -13.2% 85% 23% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 23% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 12% -21.4%
15% -29.1% 8% -29.0%
20% -36.0% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$166 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$17,581
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses555 / 98
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)653 / 654
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$222
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 98¢ 96¢ $321 $317 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $319 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $267 +$34 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $270 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $260 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $258 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $241 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $236 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $273 +$103 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $338 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $328 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $314 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $299 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $284 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $240 +$42 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $215 +$24 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $234 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $377 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $364 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $326 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $312 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $309 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $291 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $288 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $285 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $243 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $264 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $160 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $286 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $284 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $270 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $254 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $244 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $231 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $223 −$72 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $218 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $374 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $370 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $366 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $422 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $156 +$44 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $291 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $42 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $17 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $319 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $301 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $267 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $270 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $260 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $241 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $236 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $376 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $273 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $183 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $166 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $314 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $299 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $89 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.57 · official $246.04 · 3500 history records