Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xae5b…4018 crypto 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%98W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$133
politics 5% +$49
other 1% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +11.5% +0.9% 76% 76% +1.5%
≤30d 65 +4.3% -5.7% 65% 58% -8.7%
≤90d 66 +2.9% -6.9% 64% 58% -11.0%
all 171 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 49% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 49% -12.1%
10% -27.0% 32% -20.5%
15% -34.0% 18% -28.2%
20% -40.5% 12% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses98 / 73
Open positions5
Markets (closed)171 / 176
History coverage380d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.18 · official $13.18 (match) · 395 history records