Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae5b…c231 world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$2
other 23% $0
sports 14% −$7
politics 7% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 61 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 5% -9.4%
all 69 -1.5% -10.9% 39% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage537d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $66 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $98 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $131 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $19 −$4 -23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $37 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $19 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $19 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $34 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $36 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $36 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.34 · official $34.50 (match) · 297 history records