Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae5e…13be sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (607 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16,218 (+4%) realized +$16,068 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%44W / 5L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$8,221per market
Trades / day606.8pace
Fees−$10,797est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$17,182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (607 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +9.8% -0.6% 90% 6% -5.7%
≤30d 49 +9.8% -0.6% 90% 6% -5.7%
≤90d 49 +9.8% -0.6% 90% 6% -5.7%
all 49 +9.8% -0.6% 90% 6% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover606.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.6% 6% -5.7%
10% -10.1% 6% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -18.8% 4% -23.0%
20% -26.8% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$10,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$408 vs −$186 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.32 per $1 lost it wins $19.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7,650
Realized+$16,068
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses44 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$10,797
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$8,221
Trades / day606.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 25¢ 26¢ $7,500 $7,650 +$150 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $21,594 +$351 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $9,320 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $16,151 +$340 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $39,712 +$1,135 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $11,700 +$200 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4,424 +$128 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $29,922 +$474 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17,584 +$614 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5,455 +$101 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8,295 −$255 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $13,053 +$201 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,352 +$159 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,900 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $16,853 +$247 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10,000 +$147 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7,705 +$23 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,553 +$180 +7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,100 +$50 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $47,158 +$932 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3,881 +$276 +7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,914 +$173 +4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2,000 +$100 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5,373 +$143 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,950 +$74 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,600 +$93 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,307 +$70 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6,108 +$154 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $900 +$50 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8,960 +$127 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,850 +$50 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10,973 +$145 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,750 +$50 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8,280 +$313 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $203 +$6 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12,375 −$587 -5%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $111 +$389 +349%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,380 +$30 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $19,146 +$567 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $7,484 +$75 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,800 +$30 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $960 +$18 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4,073 +$77 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,922 +$38 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,547 +$36 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $8,980 +$9,317 +104%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $802 +$248 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $70 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $220 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $43 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $76 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,649.98 · official $7,649.98 (match) · 3500 history records