Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae60…d190 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%117W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$13
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 118 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 118 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×324.44 per $1 lost it wins $324.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses117 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage81d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? Jun 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 18? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $235 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 13? Jun 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 11? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 30? May 29 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 29? May 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 28? May 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 27? May 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 May 18-24? May 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 18-24? May 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 23 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 24? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 22 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 21? May 20 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 21? May 20 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 19? May 18 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 17 $113 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $118 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $118 21h
Will Solana reach $85 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $79 22h
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $18 26h
Will Solana reach $85 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $21 27h
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $18 31h
Will Solana reach $85 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $118 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $118 41h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $69 42h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $8 42h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $33 44h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 45h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $41 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $41 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $41 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $77 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $74 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $118 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $87 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $118 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.03 · official $118.03 (match) · 305 history records