Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae65…38bc
finance · 61 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$293 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$261 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses39 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage55d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$216
14 days+$266
30 days+$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $230 +$90 +39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$10 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $137 +$33 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $110 +$29 +27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $77 +$35 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$14 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$9 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $40 +$21 +54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 07 $60 +$13 +21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $50 +$16 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $40 +$7 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $40 +$10 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? Jun 01 $33 +$17 +54%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $31 −$28 -90%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $71 +$7 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $48 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $25 +$4 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 23 $114 +$52 +46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $74 +$26 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $32 −$17 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $30 −$16 -54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $91 +$9 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $100 +$5 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12? May 13 $40 +$2 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $30 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 09 $20 +$4 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $199 +$24 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $39 +$11 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $50 −$39 -78%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $81 +$23 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $51 −$13 -26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $50 +$14 +29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $416 −$33 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $299 +$21 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $90 +$6 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $100 +$11 +10%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 22 $50 −$31 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 21 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 21 $100 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 21 $160 +$48 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 21 $100 +$34 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 55% +$366
world 24% +$61
crypto 19% −$135
other 2% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $320 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 70¢ $71 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 72¢ $14 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 74¢ $15 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 71¢ $130 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 100¢ $210 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 95¢ $100 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 95¢ $100 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down 100¢ $170 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 79¢ $40 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 79¢ $16 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 80¢ $81 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 100¢ $140 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 74¢ $22 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 76¢ $15 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 75¢ $15 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 82¢ $16 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 82¢ $34 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 82¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 85¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 57% +9.1%
≤30d 28 +4.3% -5.6% 71% 54% +5.7%
≤90d 59 -4.4% -13.5% 66% 49% -4.4%
all 59 -4.4% -13.5% 66% 49% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 49% -4.4%
10% -21.8% 37% -13.5%
15% -29.3% 14% -21.9%
20% -36.3% 8% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.38 · official $63.39 (match) · 173 history records