Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae66…3072 world 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$1
other 25% $0
politics 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 20 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage460d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $40 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $77 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $34 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 21 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 3m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $34 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $6 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $40 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $9 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $28 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $10 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $14 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $23 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 37h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $33 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records