Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AE 0xae67…3cbb crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$148 (-49%) realized −$145 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$151
other 15% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 55 -21.4% -28.9% 29% 29% -63.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 29% -63.7%
10% -35.7% 27% -67.2%
15% -41.9% 27% -70.3%
20% -47.6% 25% -73.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage110d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 09 $100 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 09 $38 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 05 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 05 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 05 $2 +$3 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 05 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 05 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 05 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$2 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 05 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$2 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$3 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$5 +538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$3 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $100 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $45 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $38 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.76 · official $41.76 (match) · 92 history records