Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae69…6a89 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 41% -18.1%
≤30d 37 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 41% -18.1%
≤90d 37 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 41% -18.1%
all 37 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 41% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 41% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 35% -26.0%
15% -34.4% 22% -33.1%
20% -40.8% 19% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$18 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$34 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$41 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$27 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$29 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$28 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $58 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $73 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $81 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $126 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $67 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $40 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $100 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records