Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae6a…21b1
other · 32 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$3 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage480d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 2 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $6 $0 -2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? May 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 20 $11 +$3 +30%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Feb 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$1
other 31% +$3
crypto 15% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 5% +$3
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $43 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $43 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $30 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $32 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 34h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 40h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $8 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 12% -10.1%
≤30d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 12% -10.1%
≤90d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 12% -10.1%
all 30 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 10% -8.7%
10% -16.5% 3% -17.4%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.20 · official $4.12 (match) · 82 history records