Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae6d…ded2 weather 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$119 (+2%) realized +$113 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate100%22W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 22 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 23% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 23% -6.7%
10% -11.1% 14% -15.6%
15% -19.7% 5% -23.8%
20% -27.6% 5% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$3,001
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses22 / 0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)22 / 30
History coverage139d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $344 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 28 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on June 27? Jun 28 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 1 Feb 13 $98 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on February 13? Feb 13 $135 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 1 Feb 13 $213 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 12? Feb 13 $80 +$19 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on February 1 Feb 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on February 12? Feb 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 12? Feb 12 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 12? Feb 12 $161 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 12? Feb 12 $250 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on February 12? Feb 12 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 11? Feb 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 11? Feb 11 $23 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11? Feb 11 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 11? Feb 11 $797 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 10? Feb 10 $12 +$8 +67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 10? Feb 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 10? Feb 10 $248 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 10? Feb 10 $434 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 10? Feb 09 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $344 40m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $500 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $500 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $500 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $206 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $115 10h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $500 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 1 SELL No 99¢ $112 134d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on February 13? SELL No 100¢ $137 134d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 1 SELL No 100¢ $220 134d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 1 BUY No 97¢ $68 136d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on February 13? BUY No 99¢ $69 136d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 1 BUY No 97¢ $145 136d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 1 BUY No 87¢ $98 136d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on February 13? BUY No 99¢ $66 136d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 12? BUY No 94¢ $47 136d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on February 12? BUY No 90¢ $90 136d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 12? BUY No 96¢ $96 136d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on February 1 BUY No 98¢ $98 136d
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 12? BUY No 98¢ $98 136d
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 12? BUY No 88¢ $27 136d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 12? BUY No 83¢ $42 136d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11? SELL No 55¢ $0 136d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11? SELL No 55¢ $16 136d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11? SELL No 55¢ $3 136d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11? SELL No 55¢ $6 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,000.87 · official $3,000.87 (match) · 81 history records