Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xae6f…041e politics 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,018 (+1%) realized +$2,017 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%38W / 143L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,478per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$28
14 days−$58
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$140
other 40% −$120
sports 9% +$2,188
culture 6% −$18
economics 2% −$8
world 1% −$18
tech 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -8.2% -17.0% 3% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 105 -3.1% -12.3% 4% 2% -8.6%
all 181 -2.5% -11.8% 21% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 8% -8.9%
10% -20.2% 8% -17.6%
15% -27.9% 8% -25.6%
20% -35.0% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,248) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$10 · ×8.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$2,017
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses38 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,478
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $220 $221 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $301 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $3,257 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,711 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $2,752 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $2,812 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $6,462 −$9 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2,443 −$4 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $5,702 −$6 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $2,822 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,355 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,214 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,505 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,248 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,662 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,208 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,530 −$6 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,105 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3,623 −$4 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,674 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $844 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,442 −$5 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $540 +$1 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,815 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,197 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,152 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,404 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $874 −$1 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $86 +$43 +50%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $4,491 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $301 31m
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $301 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 23h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 25h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $294 43h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $295 46h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $207 47h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $207 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $424 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $424 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $463 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $464 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $365 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $366 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $252 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $252 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $378 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $378 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $436 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $437 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $867 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $868 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $779 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $780 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $799 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $800 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $735 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $736 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.02 · official $221.02 (match) · 646 history records