Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae74…f528 sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$84
14 days+$96
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$52
crypto 21% −$17
other 15% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +27.6% +15.5% 67% 67% +28.8%
≤30d 35 +24.2% +12.4% 69% 63% +7.2%
≤90d 70 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 49% -11.6%
all 70 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 49% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 49% -11.6%
10% -22.3% 46% -20.1%
15% -29.8% 39% -27.8%
20% -36.6% 31% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 34
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage44d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 +$29 +56%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $25 +$30 +118%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $35 +$18 +51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $3 +$7 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -75%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $14 +$7 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$21 +197%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $16 +$6 +37%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $11 +$6 +54%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $20 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $22 +$2 +8%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $9 +$13 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 27 $8 −$1 -7%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 24 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $25 +$16 +62%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $12 +$11 +96%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 23 $11 +$21 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 22 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 22 $8 +$7 +88%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 22 $21 +$9 +44%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 22 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 21 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 21 $6 +$7 +105%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $15 −$12 -81%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $7 +$8 +115%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 16 $14 −$14 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof May 15 $11 +$9 +85%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $21 +$4 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $55 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $25 31h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $52 31h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $35 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 43¢ $10 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 14¢ $3 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $6 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $5 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $0 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $5 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $1 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $2 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $5 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $27 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 21¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records