Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AE 0xae76…2763 sports 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,938 (+18%) realized +$2,484 · open +$1,454
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 57L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$254est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$2,930
14 days+$3,432
30 days+$3,432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$6,679
other 34% −$797
crypto 13% −$702
world 3% −$293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +13.2% +2.4% 39% 38% +6.4%
≤30d 94 +12.1% +1.4% 39% 38% +6.3%
≤90d 94 +12.1% +1.4% 39% 38% +6.3%
all 94 +12.1% +1.4% 39% 38% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 38% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 37% -3.9%
15% -17.2% 36% -13.2%
20% -25.3% 36% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$188 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,398
Realized+$2,484
Unrealized+$1,454
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$254
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 101
History coverage9d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $765 $2,329 +$1,563 (+204%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $84 $68 −$16 (-19%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 5¢ 0¢ $53 $1 −$52 (-99%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 20¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $400 +$1,767 +442%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $357 +$643 +180%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $140 −$136 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $835 −$820 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $127 −$127 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $382 −$382 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $256 +$766 +300%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $135 −$132 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $151 −$147 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $306 +$551 +180%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $307 −$300 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$160 -79%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $305 +$445 +146%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $294 +$243 +83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $437 +$536 +123%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $257 +$987 +385%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $608 +$427 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $306 +$631 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$52 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $98 +$102 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$132 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$164 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $111 +$110 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$84 +162%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $310 −$310 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $564 −$278 -49%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 17 $333 −$333 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 4¢ $53 7m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 5¢ $54 42m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $43 49m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $93 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $128 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $334 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $23 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $23 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $102 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $84 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 32¢ $357 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 43¢ $196 3h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Spread BUY 2¢ $51 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $199 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $140 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $357 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,397.71 · official $2,450.86 · 283 history records