Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae77…2a6a other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$3
other 29% −$1
politics 16% $0
sports 8% −$5
culture 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.9% -13.1% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 10 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 44 -4.0% -13.2% 34% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage297d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 47¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $15 +$1 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $62 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $33 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $22 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $36 +$1 +2%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 10 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Sep 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $2 $0 -6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 29 $34 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $40 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $39 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 50¢ $23 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 48¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $7 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $12 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $37 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $37 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $37 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $37 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $5 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $29 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $33 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records