Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AE 0xae78…acaf sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$154 (+2%) realized +$175 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 35L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$35
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$474
other 21% −$324
world 14% +$826
politics 4% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 35% -8.9%
≤30d 60 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 33% -9.2%
≤90d 60 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 33% -9.2%
all 60 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 33% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 33% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 33% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 30% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 25% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$73 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 35
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage11d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Yes 93¢ 91¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 11¢ 12¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $53 −$11 -22%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $52 −$3 -6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 23 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 23 $52 +$3 +7%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $103 −$28 -27%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $101 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$33 -64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $52 −$7 -14%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$32 -63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $103 −$63 -62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $103 +$101 +99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 −$34 -66%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 +$86 +84%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $205 −$164 -80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $204 +$55 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $308 −$78 -25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $204 +$115 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $308 +$14 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $103 −$66 -64%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 19 $105 −$98 -94%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $105 −$92 -88%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $204 −$145 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 +$53 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$31 +61%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $102 +$88 +86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$70 +69%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $103 +$130 +126%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$27 +53%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$41 +40%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $101 +$271 +269%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $101 +$33 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $101 +$99 +98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $101 +$587 +581%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $50 −$32 -64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$64 -62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$61 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $50 −$33 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$41 +81%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $53 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $51 4h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 94¢ $51 4h
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 92¢ $51 4h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 31¢ $41 7h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 59¢ $49 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 7h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $55 7h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 32¢ $75 7h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $96 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 37h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $45 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 19¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 49¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 22¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 24¢ $52 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $51 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 2d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $52 2d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $52 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 16¢ $40 2d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $204 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.21 · official $329.42 (match) · 155 history records