Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae79…5322 crypto 1603 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$850 (-7%) realized −$850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate89%1431W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$270
14 days−$349
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$72
other 33% −$188
finance 15% −$261
weather 6% −$63
culture 1% −$108
economics 1% −$9
politics 1% −$20
world 0% −$15
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -73.9% -76.4% 0% 0% -27.7%
≤30d 71 -41.3% -46.9% 3% 3% -21.8%
≤90d 1603 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 7% -15.2%
all 1603 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 7% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 7% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 3% -23.3%
15% -27.6% 2% -30.7%
20% -34.7% 1% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1431 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1603 / 1603
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1603 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $31 −$3 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $118 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $69 −$17 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 14? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 7? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $334 −$99 -30%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $482 −$12 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $45 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $56 −$11 -19%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $76 −$6 -8%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $146 −$9 -6%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 18 $59 −$17 -29%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $204 −$30 -14%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $14 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $90 −$4 -4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $170 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 −$15 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$4 -21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $80 −$1 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $135 −$12 -9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $41 −$3 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $14 −$2 -17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 09 $58 −$4 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? SELL Yes 81¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 58¢ $114 35h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 59¢ $118 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 51¢ $45 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 69¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 69¢ $69 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Down 39¢ $76 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 90¢ $180 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Down 80¢ $159 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 77¢ $154 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $116 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $66 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $68 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $125 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $137 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $134 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $151 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $154 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 46¢ $1 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 50¢ $9 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 54¢ $4 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 43¢ $42 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 46¢ $45 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records