Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AE 0xae7a…c756 crypto 908 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$253 (+0%) realized +$253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%844W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$149
14 days+$201
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 333 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 899 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 0% -9.4%
all 908 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$27 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses844 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)908 / 908
History coverage99d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 908 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $151 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $128 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $199 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $198 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $159 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $143 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $115 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $171 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $198 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $151 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $128 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $199 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $198 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.40 · official $200.00 (match) · 2655 history records