Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AE 0xae7b…31a7 sports 33 markets active 4d ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$211 (+24%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$0
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$111
other 16% −$50
world 15% +$140
finance 9% +$40
politics 4% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.9% +4.0% 100% 100% +3.1%
≤30d 9 +14.5% +3.6% 89% 78% +4.3%
≤90d 27 +13.7% +2.9% 67% 59% +9.5%
all 32 +12.5% +1.8% 66% 59% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 59% +12.6%
10% -7.9% 38% +1.8%
15% -16.8% 31% -8.0%
20% -25.0% 22% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage139d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 18 $32 +$3 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$3 +17%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 09 $20 +$10 +48%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 03 $10 +$2 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $16 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 03 $25 +$3 +12%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $22 +$23 +101%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 21 $15 +$5 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $18 +$8 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 21 $24 +$3 +14%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 06 $23 +$6 +27%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $45 +$7 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 05 $20 +$2 +10%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 22 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 15 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 15 $29 +$46 +158%
Magic vs. Raptors Apr 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 11 $32 +$35 +110%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 29 $29 +$42 +143%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Mar 24 $24 −$24 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 24 $31 +$151 +488%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Feb 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 22 $27 +$29 +104%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 18 $55 +$25 +45%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 07 $73 +$60 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $20 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $20 12d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $32 12d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 18d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $19 18d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $22 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 86¢ $10 31d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 72¢ $24 31d
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group BUY NIP 73¢ $25 31d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $18 37d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $15 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 94¢ $16 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 89¢ $25 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $24 46d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $15 47d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $15 47d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $23 47d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $15 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? BUY No 91¢ $20 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 60d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 47¢ $18 67d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 39¢ $20 67d
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 38¢ $29 71d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY No 25¢ $34 71d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Magic 43¢ $35 84d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 41¢ $29 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 89d
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $24 116d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 40¢ $20 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.11 · official $54.11 (match) · 63 history records