Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae7c…6d3b sports 217 markets active 5h ago coverage 648d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,242 (+22%) realized +$15,132 · open +$110
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%95W / 110L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$844
7 days+$863
14 days+$642
30 days+$1,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$1,321
tech 41% +$14,524
other 11% −$3,331
politics 5% +$2,647
finance 1% +$11
world 1% +$62
crypto 0% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +118.8% +98.0% 50% 50% +222.3%
≤30d 35 +38.0% +24.8% 49% 49% +34.0%
≤90d 88 +9.4% -1.0% 45% 42% -5.2%
all 205 +7.9% -2.3% 46% 44% +10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 44% +10.7%
10% -11.7% 42% +0.1%
15% -20.2% 41% -9.5%
20% -28.0% 38% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$364 vs −$177 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

648d coverage
Net worth$745
Realized+$15,132
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses95 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions12
Markets (closed)205 / 217
History coverage648d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $81 $110 +$28 (+35%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $67 $109 +$42 (+62%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 52¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $101 $87 −$14 (-14%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 72¢ $39 $72 +$32 (+83%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $40 $67 +$27 (+68%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $42 +$8 (+25%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 50¢ 55¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $40 $25 −$15 (-38%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $125 +$875 +700%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$54 +119%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 +$66 +194%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $47 −$47 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $31 +$19 +61%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $26 +$74 +285%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 04 $212 −$212 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 03 $55 −$55 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $56 −$6 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $46 −$39 -85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $80 −$70 -88%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $88 +$112 +127%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $56 +$44 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $52 +$48 +92%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 21 $44 +$56 +127%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S May 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $64 +$136 +212%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $51 +$49 +96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 18 $104 +$196 +188%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $45 +$155 +344%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $454 +$396 +87%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $80 +$120 +150%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 17 $51 +$49 +96%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof May 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $82 +$167 +203%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 13 $72 +$8 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 13 $164 −$28 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 10 $180 +$24 +13%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $117 +$83 +71%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $63 +$37 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $100 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $50 5h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $25 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 10¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $37 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 7d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $31 8d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $20 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $9 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $2 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $6 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $6 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $6 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $2 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $7 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $1 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $8 10d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $6 11d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Tom Nolan 26¢ $26 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $11 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $7 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $10 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $28 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $8 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $7 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $56 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $745.40 · official $745.40 (match) · 894 history records