Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

AE 0xae7d…058f sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate6%1W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$176per market

Trades / day35.4pace

Fees−$41est.

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-10.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-1.2%	-10.6%	6%	0%	-10.3%
≤30d	16	-1.2%	-10.6%	6%	0%	-10.3%
≤90d	16	-1.2%	-10.6%	6%	0%	-10.3%
all	16	-1.2%	-10.6%	6%	0%	-10.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover35.4 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.6%	0%	-10.3%
10% ← realistic here	-19.2%	0%	-18.9%
15%	-27.0%	0%	-26.7%
20%	-34.1%	0%	-33.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late -1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$80

Realized−$10

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)6%

Wins / losses1 / 15

Est. fees paid−$41

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage2d

Avg bet$176

Trades / day35.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners	Under	42¢	42¢	$57	$56	−$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	Under	13¢	12¢	$26	$24	−$2 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$360	−$3	-1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	Jun 25	$662	+$1	+0%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$140	−$3	-2%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?	Jun 25	$184	$0	-0%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5	Jun 24	$460	−$1	-0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada?	Jun 24	$15	$0	-0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first?	Jun 24	$470	$0	-0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 24	$230	−$4	-2%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 23	$30	$0	-0%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 23	$27	$0	-0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$158	−$9	-6%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$80	−$6	-8%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first?	Jun 23	$6	$0	-0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$84	$0	-0%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$125	$0	-0%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$4	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5	SELL Under	72¢	$357	23m
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5	BUY Under	72¢	$360	24m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners	SELL Under	42¢	$6	58m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	SELL No	92¢	$230	58m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	BUY No	92¢	$230	59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners	BUY Under	42¢	$42	59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners	BUY Under	42¢	$21	59m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	SELL Under	13¢	$2	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5	SELL Over	28¢	$137	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5	BUY Over	28¢	$140	1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?	SELL No	94¢	$36	1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	SELL Yes	7¢	$18	1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	SELL Under	13¢	$1	2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	SELL No	93¢	$233	2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	BUY No	93¢	$233	2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	BUY Yes	7¢	$17	2h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?	SELL No	94¢	$1	2h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?	SELL No	94¢	$112	2h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?	SELL No	94¢	$35	2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	SELL No	93¢	$182	2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?	BUY No	93¢	$182	2h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?	BUY No	94¢	$184	2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	SELL Under	13¢	$1	2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	SELL Under	13¢	$1	2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	SELL Under	13¢	$8	3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	SELL Under	13¢	$13	3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	SELL Under	13¢	$13	3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5	BUY Under	13¢	$65	3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5	SELL Over	92¢	$262	13h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5	SELL Over	92¢	$197	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.42 · official $80.42 (match) · 80 history records