Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AE 0xae7d…149f crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate64%39W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$13
culture 20% −$2
politics 19% −$2
crypto 2% +$1
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 61 +3.4% -6.4% 64% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -15.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses39 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage584d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? May 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January? Feb 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? Feb 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Amazon reach $292 in November? Dec 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of November? Dec 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 15 $2,212 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $2,169 −$2 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 15 $2,285 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1b and $1.5b on Feb 21 Feb 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $996 −$1 -0%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $1 $0 +1%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +6%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? Nov 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-30? Nov 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-30? Nov 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? Nov 27 $9 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Nov 26 $18 −$2 -8%
Lions vs. Colts Nov 24 $6 +$1 +9%
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Nov 24 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 26d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 60d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 81d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 84d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January? BUY No 100¢ $10 143d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 143d
Will Amazon reach $292 in November? BUY No 100¢ $3 202d
Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $42 203d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $2,207 215d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $2,212 215d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,167 215d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,169 215d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 100¢ $2,283 215d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 BUY No 100¢ $2,285 215d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 100¢ $17 244d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 96¢ $2 298d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 99¢ $3 327d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 358d
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 388d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 388d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 389d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? BUY No 100¢ $1 389d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 419d
Will Solana reach $250 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 419d
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 428d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 451d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 462d
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 462d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.93 · official $36.93 (match) · 175 history records