Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xae81…f04b sports 963 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,400 (-6%) realized −$14,400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%523W / 439L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$157
14 days+$181
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$12,612
crypto 16% +$4,661
other 12% −$5,117
politics 2% −$931
world 2% −$827
economics 0% +$3
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +5.6% -4.4% 67% 63% +2.3%
≤30d 93 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 61% -7.3%
≤90d 243 -4.3% -13.4% 58% 55% -23.6%
all 962 -8.0% -16.8% 54% 48% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 48% -17.4%
10% -24.8% 41% -25.3%
15% -32.0% 33% -32.6%
20% -38.7% 24% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$196 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$14,400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses523 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)962 / 963
History coverage476d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 962 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ 55¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $82 +$20 +24%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $50 −$28 -55%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $65 +$16 +25%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $68 +$39 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $55 +$22 +40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $33 +$23 +68%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $45 +$12 +26%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $158 +$10 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $40 −$14 -35%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $102 +$60 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 −$9 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $18 −$18 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $50 +$7 +13%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $35 +$15 +43%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $21 +$13 +62%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 +$12 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $42 −$32 -77%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $35 +$7 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $26 +$10 +38%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $46 +$30 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $38 +$9 +23%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $19 +$17 +90%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $15 +$11 +73%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $33 −$13 -39%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $12 +$9 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $24 +$9 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $8 +$7 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $13 −$7 -58%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $4 −$2 -55%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $59 −$9 -16%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $25 −$15 -58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $48 +$28 +58%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $35 +$14 +41%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $19 +$16 +86%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $11 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $23 −$18 -78%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $14 +$9 +67%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $15 −$1 -9%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $21 −$21 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $41 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 100¢ $101 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina SELL Elina Svitolina 32¢ $23 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 80¢ $82 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $82 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 80¢ $65 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 70¢ $50 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $27 13h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $40 14h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $77 14h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 71¢ $55 16h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $55 16h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $33 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 100¢ $57 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 79¢ $45 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 72¢ $48 32h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang SELL Iva Jovic 50¢ $26 32h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 75¢ $40 38h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $102 47h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 70¢ $102 47h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $110 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $10 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Linda Noskova 58¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 58¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 62¢ $18 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $20 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 88¢ $50 4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $50 4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 69¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.64 · official $39.64 (match) · 2370 history records