Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AE 0xae82…1499 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$527 (+21%) realized +$527 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day12.6pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+25.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+39.0%	+25.8%	55%	55%	+44.4%
≤30d	22	+39.0%	+25.8%	55%	55%	+44.4%
≤90d	22	+39.0%	+25.8%	55%	55%	+44.4%
all	22	+39.0%	+25.8%	55%	55%	+44.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.8%	55%	+44.4%
10%	+13.7%	55%	+30.5%
15%	+2.8%	55%	+17.9%
20%	-7.3%	45%	+6.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +41% → late +37% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$125 vs −$39 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$527

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 34

History coverage4d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day12.6

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$41	+159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$32	+124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-95%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$102	+$201	+197%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	Jun 22	$51	+$96	+188%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$202	+$96	+48%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$173	+$183	+106%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$239	−$40	-17%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	Jun 22	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals	Jun 22	$51	−$45	-89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$122	−$72	-59%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$102	+$222	+218%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19	Jun 21	$204	+$404	+198%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$152	+$102	+67%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals	Jun 21	$101	+$36	+36%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists	Jun 21	$15	$0	-1%
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists	Jun 21	$20	+$39	+189%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	Jun 21	$51	+$49	+97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$5	2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Mo	BUY	12¢	$51	2h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Morocco	BUY	24¢	$41	2h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals AND Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	BUY	6¢	$5	2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	BUY	12¢	$5	2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	BUY	6¢	$5	2h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals AND Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	BUY	3¢	$10	2h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal	BUY	34¢	$51	13h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$147	13h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$298	13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$355	13h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	13h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	33¢	$102	13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	30¢	$20	14h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$51	14h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$101	14h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	34¢	$51	14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	SELL	40¢	$198	15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	43¢	$102	17h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	67¢	$202	17h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY	46¢	$239	26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	28¢	$50	36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	26¢	$204	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $465.00 · 57 history records