Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae85…c96a crypto 1806 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,421 (-19%) realized −$3,414 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%899W / 899L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$216
14 days−$237
30 days−$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$986
sports 31% −$481
other 17% −$106
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -10.5% -19.1% 41% 41% -21.9%
≤30d 782 -10.6% -19.1% 44% 44% -18.4%
≤90d 1798 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -17.5%
all 1798 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 50% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 50% -25.4%
15% -33.2% 45% -32.6%
20% -39.7% 36% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$3,414
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses899 / 899
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1798 / 1806
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1798 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 454 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $5 +$23 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$11 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$20 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +99%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$19 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$19 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $10 +$6 +59%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Muchova/Williams vs Olmos/Routlif Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 +$16 +158%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $10 +$16 +156%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 23¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 1h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 18¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Gonzalo Bueno 21¢ $5 6h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 14¢ $5 6h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 22¢ $5 7h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 52¢ $10 8h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 39¢ $10 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $10 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $20 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 34h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 70¢ $15 35h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 54¢ $15 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $10 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.33 · official $43.33 · 3500 history records