Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae8c…9b08 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+5%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.7% -7.1% 52% 48% -2.6%
≤30d 59 -11.5% -19.9% 51% 46% -8.3%
≤90d 59 -11.5% -19.9% 51% 46% -8.3%
all 59 -11.5% -19.9% 51% 46% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -8.3%
10% -27.6% 31% -17.1%
15% -34.6% 24% -25.1%
20% -41.0% 19% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records