Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae8c…1dc0 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-7%) realized −$52 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$99
other 18% +$1
politics 7% +$1
tech 4% +$2
economics 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 0% -21.5%
≤30d 8 +6.2% -3.9% 75% 25% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -4.6% -13.6% 64% 18% -18.9%
all 11 -4.6% -13.6% 64% 18% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 18% -18.9%
10% -21.9% 18% -26.6%
15% -29.5% 9% -33.7%
20% -36.4% 9% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions19
Markets (closed)11 / 30
History coverage45d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 92¢ 93¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 91¢ 86¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 84¢ $44 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 84¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 86¢ 84¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $50 −$22 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Jun 11 $60 +$2 +4%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $50 +$2 +3%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Jun 02 $50 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 +$2 +59%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $50 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $50 +$12 +23%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 15 $50 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $45 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 43¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $60 5d
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $63 5d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 10d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 14d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $50 14d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 14d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $50 14d
US strike on Mexico by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $50 14d
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $50 14d
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $60 14d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $60 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $40 14d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $50 14d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 14d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $51 14d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $20 15d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $25 15d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $25 16d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $50 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $6 16d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $62 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 30d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 33d
Netanyahu out by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $51 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 62¢ $4 45d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.10 · official $831.10 (match) · 63 history records