Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xae8d…6db9 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+3%) realized +$215 · open −$78
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$43
14 days+$22
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$88
politics 15% +$39
sports 9% −$20
world 9% +$1
crypto 3% +$22
tech 3% +$1
finance 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.2% +0.6% 67% 50% -5.8%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 50% 40% -14.6%
≤90d 33 -0.8% -10.2% 55% 42% -3.7%
all 33 -0.8% -10.2% 55% 42% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 42% -3.7%
10% -18.8% 39% -12.9%
15% -26.6% 36% -21.4%
20% -33.8% 27% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$30 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$892
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage92d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $351 $352 +$1 (+0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $350 $279 −$71 (-20%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $20 +$18 +87%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 18 $102 −$11 -11%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $692 +$11 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Jun 14 $64 −$14 -22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? Jun 13 $21 −$6 -31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$22 +146%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks? Jun 06 $277 −$111 -40%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Magic (BO3) - MLBB Continental May 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.40 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026? May 15 $52 −$20 -40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $301 +$168 +56%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $80 +$31 +40%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $73 −$72 -98%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 21? Apr 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 23 $135 +$121 +90%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 21 $244 +$109 +45%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 09 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $50 +$43 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Apr 05 $100 +$25 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 69¢ $95 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 70¢ $22 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 69¢ $40 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 61¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 34h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $20 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $85 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $86 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 53¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $121 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 16¢ $92 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $216 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $892.39 · official $892.39 (match) · 190 history records