Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae8e…afc1
other · 84 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,053 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$983 · open −$70
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$34
Realized−$983
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses19 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
Avg bet$116
Trades / day57.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%
Chart Positions 1 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days−$733
30 days−$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $104 $34 −$70 (-68%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $269 $0 −$269 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 48 million views on day 2? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's video get less than 66 million views on week 1? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $756 $0 −$756 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Grace Avelli be cast on Love Island UK: Season 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$37 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $282 −$269 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $96 −$62 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $101 −$80 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $37 −$26 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $36 −$19 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $77 −$31 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $51 +$41 +80%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Grace Avelli be cast on Love Island UK: Season 13? Jun 02 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $74 +$219 +296%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $265 −$205 -77%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -58%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $1 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $81 −$64 -79%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 31 $96 −$53 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $11 −$3 -31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 30 $7 −$4 -63%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 30 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $25 +$5 +19%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 30 $61 −$34 -55%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 30 $117 −$92 -79%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 30 $8 +$10 +125%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 61m and 67m? May 30 $2 +$3 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $109 −$13 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $51 −$35 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $228 −$115 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $58 −$52 -90%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 25 $27 −$1 -6%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 25 $11 $0 -3%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m May 25 $0 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $21 −$14 -66%
Will MrBeast's video get less than 66 million views on week 1? May 23 $850 −$778 -92%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $304 −$22 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,174 +$1,245 +106%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 May 22 $340 −$282 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $392 −$330 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $68 −$52 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $44 +$292 +658%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $39 −$37 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 May 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 May 20 $207 −$192 -92%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 May 19 $107 +$58 +54%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 19 $14 −$10 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $552 −$241 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% −$644
crypto 7% −$270
politics 3% −$22
culture 2% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 8m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 8m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.8% -37.4% 0% 0% -64.9%
≤30d 62 +12.1% +1.4% 19% 19% -20.5%
≤90d 83 +11.1% +0.5% 23% 22% -17.9%
all 83 +11.1% +0.5% 23% 22% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 22% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 17% -25.8%
15% -17.9% 17% -33.0%
20% -25.9% 16% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.59 · official $33.59 (match) · 3500 history records