Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae8f…1cc3 sports 402 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,261 (+3%) realized +$1,291 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%156W / 245L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$849est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$627
14 days−$895
30 days−$4,012
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$646
crypto 3% −$438
politics 1% +$195
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -33.3% -39.6% 26% 26% -40.6%
≤30d 87 -22.6% -30.0% 30% 30% -34.8%
≤90d 296 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 37% -11.3%
all 401 -3.6% -12.7% 39% 38% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 38% -8.7%
10% -21.1% 38% -17.4%
15% -28.7% 37% -25.4%
20% -35.7% 35% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$91 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,291
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses156 / 245
Est. fees paid−$849
Open positions1
Markets (closed)401 / 402
History coverage246d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas Seattle Orcas 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $86 −$68 -78%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 27 $43 −$39 -89%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $72 +$144 +200%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 25 $98 −$98 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $42 −$36 -86%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $40 −$39 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $81 +$85 +105%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $47 +$65 +138%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 22 $189 −$189 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 22 $260 −$260 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $201 −$157 -78%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $200 +$299 +150%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 20 $63 +$64 +101%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $142 −$137 -97%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $119 −$2 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $159 +$194 +122%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $439 +$404 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $666 −$327 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $153 −$138 -91%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $149 −$149 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $103 −$97 -95%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $201 +$100 +50%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -88%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $258 −$175 -68%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $249 −$249 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $73 −$71 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 11 $130 −$38 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $197 −$104 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $335 −$335 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $417 −$35 -8%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $100 +$123 +123%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $212 −$207 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $489 +$250 +51%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 08 $66 −$3 -4%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Oman Jun 08 $82 −$82 -100%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $172 −$163 -95%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $108 +$172 +160%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $54 +$66 +122%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 07 $61 −$5 -8%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 162.5 Jun 06 $264 −$252 -96%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $233 +$306 +131%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $111 +$129 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 13¢ $31 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Atlanta Dream 12¢ $19 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 54¢ $15 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 SELL Over 4¢ $5 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 53¢ $71 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 36¢ $0 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 36¢ $9 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 36¢ $9 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 36¢ $9 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 36¢ $7 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 36¢ $9 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 3h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 98¢ $0 14h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 97¢ $151 14h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 25¢ $40 14h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 6¢ $64 16h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 3¢ $27 17h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 3¢ $5 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 4¢ $4 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? BUY India 49¢ $9 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? BUY India 49¢ $2 41h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 49¢ $38 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 49¢ $18 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 1750 history records